MEDIA POLLS: THE NEWEST NEGATIVE CAMPAIGN AD

by MIKE FLYNN

Over the years, I've generally had little patience when partisans make the "polls are wrong" argument. I've usually found it to be the last refuge of campaigns which were clearly struggling. Sure, individual polls can be wrong, and some can occasionally produce a crazy outlier, but a collective average of polling produces a roughly accurate snapshot of the state of a race. This year, however, is different. The overwhelming majority of media polling this election employ such absurd assumptions about turnout this November that they not only misrepresent the presidential race, they are actively distorting it. I also believe it is intentional. 

In 2008, the electorate that elected Barack 

Obama was 39% Democrat, 32% GOP and 

29% Independent. This is what we call a D+7 

electorate. Obama defeated McCain by 7 

points, the same margin. In 2004, the 

electorate was 37% Democrat, 37% 

Republican, and 26% Independent, in other 

words D/R +0. Bush defeated John Kerry by 3 

points nationally. 

Yet, virtually every big media poll is based on a model in which Democrats equal or increase their share of the electorate over 2008. Beyond simple common sense, there are many reasons this won't happen. 

The Dem vote in '08 was the largest in 

decades. It came after fatigue of eight years of 

GOP control, two unpopular wars, a charming 

Democrat candidate who was the Chauncy 

Gardner of politics, a vessel who could hold 

everyone's personal dreams and hopes for a 

politician. It was a perfect storm for 

Democrats. 

None of the factors driving Democrat turnout 

in '08 exist today. Recent polls from AP, 

Politico and the daily tracking polls from 

Rasmussen and Gallup, all of which assume 

relatively lower Democrat turnout in 

November, show the race essentially tied. 

Only those polls showing an electorate with 

equal or greater numbers of Democrats show 

Obama with any sizable lead. 

Yet, it's these polls that are driving the 

political narrative. Every day the media 

launches a number of stories about Romney's 

"struggling" campaign. They cite anonymous 

GOP sources who wring their hands that the 

campaign is losing ground. The only real 

evidence of this, however, are the polls which 

heavily over-sample Democrat voters. Without 

these skewed polls, the media's narrative 

would be untenable. 

Quite simply, and apart from past years, the 

media have decided to weaponize the polls. 


The heavy D polls aren't just meant to reassure 

them that everything is okay in ObamaLand, 

but to actually hit the Romney campaign. The 

constant drumbeat echoed by unrealistic polls 

is designed to dampen fundraising, tap down 

on GOP enthusiasm and create a false 

narrative that Obama is pulling away with the 

race. 

In recent days, a number of pollsters have 

pushed back against criticism about the 

sampling in their polls. They argue that they 

are just picking up a big swing in the 

electorate towards the Democrats. If that were 

true, though, wouldn't we see signs of it 

outside the polls. Obama's speaking to much 

smaller venues than he did in 2008. There are 

far fewer signs and bumper stickers supporting 

Obama. Obama's main support bases, young 

voters and minorities, all show less enthusiasm 

for voting this year. None of this is dispositive, 

but if we were really seeing a return to the '08 

Democrat wave wouldn't we, well, see it?

Every election features something new, an 

evolution from past campaigns. This year's 

development is troubling. Polls are now being 

used, not simply to gauge the state of the race, 

but to impact the race. We're not far off from 

the day that the New York Times or CBS will 

have to file their polls as in-kind contributions 

to the Democrats. 

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